Humorous 50th Birthday Invitation Wording

Aeronautics Spanish takeoff?

Spain is the fifth largest European has in terms of aviation industry and provides direct employment of over 33,000 people, a figure which we can multiply by 4 or 5 if we take the indirect and induced jobs account.

In 2008, the figure consolidated sales of the industry amounted to 5.075 million euros, and assuming a 25% increase over the previous year. During the last decade, the English aerospace industry has presented a very high growth rate and has become one of the industries investing more in innovation and technological development.

These figures thus show the dynamism and importance of the aviation sector in Spain.

It is true that the crisis has also hit the sector, which resulted, as well as internationally in Spain by a decline in air traffic that was slightly felt on new aircraft orders and production rates.

However, forecasts for the sector are on the next few years, fairly good.
In fact, Spain will receive aid from public institutions (ie, state), as well as investment projects to private companies.

Regarding the former, the state has in effect established a very important program to maintain the competitiveness of the aerospace and English to increase the pace of growth in the sector, following the program launched in 2007 and in the period 2008-2016.



Plan 2008-2016 - Financial assistance to increase competitiveness and strengthen industrialization. This support will be implemented by the loan of 285 million euros (zero interest loans with a repayment period of 15 years and a period of 5 years of waiting). This loan will be used to finance sector innovations, such as new products / services, improving the durability and engineering of production processes.

Moreover, the state promises to help 50% of firms undertaking investments transformations generating direct employment, creating or expanding industrial premises or starting a new activity that requires a radical change in the product or production processes. It already provides that the sector could benefit from more than 152 million euros between 2010 and 2014 (loan repayable in the same manner as the first).

-maintaining demand through acquisitions by the State, new products. This dynamic is in place since 1996 and is planned between 2010 and 2014, funding for programs for an estimated total of 2,490 million euros. The program
Airbus and its English subsidiary will be a beneficiary of this plan. The state plans in effect dispose of "repayable loans" totaling about 278 million euros to Airbus in the development program A350. Other projects from the same company will also benefit from these advances to the tune of 112 million euros.
In addition, the English government has also made an order for 12 Eurocopter EC135 P2i helicopters, which will be manufactured at the plant in Albacete. This command has led to the fall of Spain at the forefront of producing this type of aircraft.

-building "sub-contractors top level" of the Airbus A350 XWB program through "repayable" and loans for a total of 265 million euros.

-industry consolidation auxiliary aviation industry. These grants will be up to 150 million euros made by ENISA (national business innovation activity are based on aid to finance for SMEs in the aeronautics sector).

The English government shows us the vital importance of aviation sector in the strategic landscape and the English economy.

Furthermore, Spain will be part of new projects can stimulate the growth of the sector.
Thus, the country will be one of the four pillars of the export of Eurofighter, the subsidiary of Getafe (Madrid) being responsible for the sales campaign aircraft in South Korea. If the sale is successful, the aircraft will be assembled at the plant in Getafe, meaning an investment of 8 billion euros and 22,000 direct jobs, mostly highly skilled engineers.

Finally, it is also envisaged the creation of a new cluster in Castilla-La Mancha. In this region, Aeronautics has established itself as one of the pillars of the economy, becoming the fourth English region in terms of importance (after Madrid, Andalusia and the Basque Country). This importance is also reflected internationally as the area transforms at a global level, 10% of the carbon fiber industry.
Plans are underway to strengthen the aviation and logistics park of Albacete with the incorporation of new technology companies and service

This summary of aviation activity in Spain reassures us therefore the future of this country. Indeed, large financial resources have been implemented to maintain the economic and strategic aviation in Spain.

projects are planned and more control will be maintained initially and then increased when the international economy has regained its momentum.

Superpump Mental Side Effects

The technology sector in Spain,

In Spain, the macro sector of ICT (Information Technology and Communications) includes the areas of consumer electronics, telecommunications services and internet services and audiovisual products, of digital content, hardware and computer software and computer services. This sector acquires a weight of more and more important in the economy, both in terms of employment and turnover. Despite a difficult economic situation generally, the sector seems to behave fairly positive.

In 2008, ICT has obtained a turnover of 77,431.5 million euros (+0.1% compared to 2007) and represents 7.07% of GDP. It generates 350,000 direct jobs and several million indirect jobs. According
ASIMELEC (Association Multisectoral Enterprise Information Technology, Communication and Electronics), telecommunications services represent 47.7% of the ICT sector, and are not monitored computer services (13.6% of the sector), which recorded strong growth ( 7.1%, a turnover of 10.554 million euros). The fastest growing segment in 2008 was the computer software (turnover of 2.985 million euros and 7.9% in 2008).

( Photo Creative Commons Kirk Lau )

By cons, 2009 will be more difficult: Billing of ICT is expected to decline by 1.7%, reaching 59,300 million euros, according to data published in June 2009 by the European Monitoring Centre for Information Technology (EITO), affecting mainly the areas of consumer electronics and public broadcasting. This will be characterized by a contraction in demand, a significant reduction in prices, consumers will switch to preferred products ranges lower or white markings.
The two main customers of ICT are the financial sector with a turnover of 3,110 million euros, and Public Administration (1,559,000 euros). Together they represent nearly half the sector's overall billing. Sectors of Health and Education are those that have the greatest growth (above 14%).
Over 67% of English companies using the Internet for their dealings with the Public Administration, which represents a 5% increase over 2007.
As for geographic distribution, Madrid and Catalonia contain 70% of the industry. Moreover, these two Autonomous concentrate 2 / 3 of net domestic market, and have a growth of 10%. Castilla-Leon and the Canaries are the Communities to the strongest growth (> 15%), while Navarre and the Basque Country were the least dynamic (5%).

( Photo Creative Commons Cane Rosso )
computing and communications have invaded English homes. They are clearly won by the age of digitization, and increase their enthusiasm for electronic devices (flat screen televisions and TNT to anticipate the switchover expected in April 2010, MP3 and MP4 players, digital cameras, consoles video games, GPS, computers ...), even if the market is showing signs of saturation.
Telecommunications services are an increasingly important part of English life: 82.8% of households have a landline telephone and 92.1% a mobile phone. In 2008, the number of mobile phone lines (49,682,382, or 107.6% of the population) increased by 2.6% over 2007. The minute volume also increased (+5%).
Internet-related services remain a key driver of telecommunications market in Spain. According to data from INE (National Institute of Statistics), 60% of households have Internet access, with an increase of over one million homes per year. Over 24 million people frequently use the Internet or over 58% of the population. The penetration of broadband internet has increased by over 13% of 2008 witnessed the first access offers ultra-fast (30Mb, 50Mb and 100Mb same), but rates remain among the ADSL highest in Europe.
Regarding services of internet access on mobile phones (WAP, 3G, UMTS ...), they play an increasingly important (the number of lines of data transfer has increased by 77% in 2008 ).

ICTs are well established in the professional world in 2008: almost 98% of companies of all sizes have computers and 95% have internet access (ADSL in 97% of cases). By cons, only 57% of them have a web page: medium and large businesses clearly see the utility, while 46% of small businesses do not understand it.
Regarding electronic commerce, it does not really convince English firms: only 20% of them purchase on the Internet, and 10% use it to sell. By cons, B2B transactions over the Internet increase: +28% for purchases, and + 11% for sales.

Marui Desert Eagle.50ae Golden

On the influence of culture M'Zab on time preferences

After a long and tedious work period, nothing like a holiday away from home! I was fortunate to discover a few days ago the doors of the great southern Algeria, in this case the region of Ghardaia for a short stay. Discussions with some of the most eminent representatives of the culture of me M'zab * marked in several ways, but especially a detail of one of those conversations I was particularly struck by an economist.

[ Anyway, although this is a blog, I will not tell you my life reader, I have already done enough in the past by telling my throes of perplexity about the definition of a policy of effective education for my brats or citing my artistic tastes probably questionable in more ways than one ... ]

In trying to explain to the poor western that I am merely the difference between culture and Mozabite way we think about things, our guide, Omar B. (If he reads this blog, it will recognize, but I think it should be as foreign to the culture of blogging is that Rene Girard's work Vuillemin) illustrated it this way (I take back those words probably in a slightly inaccurate and in my own way but as I have not recorded this conversation, reader, you must believe me on speech):

"When a resident M'Zab digs a well, he did not aim to reach the water immediately or even in his lifetime, but only to ease the task of those who will relay then the future generations that they will continue to dig the well and will eventually find water. Then, his descendants will honor his memory. "
He then reported that a few years ago, a fellow French economic advisor to a prominent political figure, he and visiting with me in the same region, had told him that it was precisely the French problem, their inability to neglect the present to project into the future, their "inner mind" (authentic expression!) is not adapted to that.

All this is obviously very poetic, but hopeless insensitive (including poetry and opera) I am, I tried not to get overwhelmed by the beauty of the place by accepting the argument straight out of Omar. I translated his argument in economic terms to mean that some civilizations, especially of Mozabites, have time preferences that differ fundamentally from those of Westerners, especially, a level of patience that is significantly larger than ours, we are obsessed by race for material happiness and recognition easy.
And as I accumulate the defect of being insensitive and to be an inveterate empiricist, I wanted to know if in behavioral literature, there were few tangible elements on this issue. But before you even talk about this a little quick overview on the issue of time preferences in economics.

The issue of impatience is well documented in economics. Economists estimate the rate of impatience through the notion of psychological discount rate or discount rate. The discount rate measures the rate at which an agent crushes deferred income over time. More income is obtained later in the future and more an individual eager to grant him a lower value. This is obviously a central concept in economics, since the psychological discount rate is supposed to base the concept of interest rates (if one was impatient person would borrow in order to consume more today).

For years, economists have assumed that the discount rate was constant: if, for me, now worth 100 euros psychologically the same as 110 euros a year (assuming there are no inflation and no risk in this fictitious economy), then have 100 euros in one year is psychologically the same as having 110 Euros in two years and so on. In this simple example, My discount rate is 10% (or my discount factor of 0.9), it measures the speed at which I depreciate a period t +1 relative to period t, this speed is assumed (in standard economic theory ) does not change for two periods immediately close.

A large body of empirical facts have come to challenge this view of things, most studies (a review of the best known is that of Frederick et al 2002 in the EDL) showing that the discount rate is not a constant. In this case, the discount rate between today and tomorrow is more important to most people that the discount rate between tomorrow and after tomorrow, embodying what is called in the literature of hyperbolic discounting functions. Clearly, I depreciates much more strongly near future as the distant future, which is not consistent with what is usually assumed by economic theory.

How to measure time preferences of people? In fact, without wishing to make a sophisticated methodological debate on it, just ask them how they trade off the sum available immediately and another sum available at a specified future horizon well (method known as "choice Task ").
It is also possible to ask them how much they should be granted to a future period for which they are willing to sacrifice this income. Both approaches are usually used together to "elicit" (measure) the psychological discount rate of individuals (method of 'matching task).

One of the first empirical studies on it was made by Richard Thaler, who will eventually have the Nobel Prize as his contribution to modern knowledge on economic behavior is important. In a study published in 1981, offers participants choose between $ 15 immediately available and $ x available in a month, a sum it available in 1 year and $ z available in 10 years. Participants must indicate the minimum x, y and z they are asking to waive the $ 15 immediately. The median response is $ 20 x = y = z = $ 50 and $ 100. These responses involve a respective annual discount rate for a period of one month to about 350%, 120% for a period of one year and 20% for a period of 10 years. The problem is that this response is not compatible with the representation of the discount rate in standard economic theory, to say that quickly formalized by Samuelson in 1937, annual discount rate is a decreasing function of distance in time, and not a constant.

I will not go further on the implications of this discovery, but it is great for economists. For example, individuals who have hyperbolic time preferences are likely to be inconsistent over time, which means they are not perfectly rational (see my last post about the dynamic choices). Therefore, if I know, as a banker, my client exhibits hyperbolic preferences, I can offer financial products that will first accept and be prepared to pay for it, then, with the passage of time, be prepared to pay to get rid! Consider an example. Suppose that Mr. X is the hyperbolic time preferences, such as a discount rate of 5% between now and tomorrow, and a discount rate of 2% between tomorrow and after tomorrow. If the banker offered him a financial product that earns 3% after tomorrow after tomorrow, he accepts. But tomorrow, demanding a return of 5%, it will be willing to pay to get rid of this product that brings in only 3%. Therefore, I can play against itself perpetually and ruining my profit (the example of the banker is entirely fortuitous, I do not think my bank has heard of this problem of time inconsistency and it is perverse to the point).

Okay, back on topic, or rather to our people M'Zab. Are they really more patient than others ie they adopt discount rates significantly lower than the Westerners in particular the long term?
At this point, reader, I must say that I have not been able to find a published study of Mozabites time preferences, and if someone is willing to finance such a study, I am ready with my proverbial generosity to devote myself to go to the field experiment Gardhaïa to grow and even to Tamanrasset and Djanet. This shows how much I am devoted to my knowledge!

For cons, I found a fairly recent study by Wang, Rieger and Hens here that compares the time preferences in 45 countries. There is not Algeria, and even less Zab region, but there is Nigeria. I'm not sure how close the results achieved in Nigeria and southern Algeria, but I hardly choice.
Some results are summarized in the following graph.

figure: annual discount rate implicit horizon of one year (horizontal axis) / next 10 years (y axis)

Source: Wang, Rieger & Hans, 2009

A brief comment on this graph. If the shape of the cloud was that of a 45 ° line, individuals are not prone to procrastination, that is to say they would not state preferences hyperbolic. Most people, whatever their country of origin, show a discount rate in the short term, highly higher than their average discount rate of long-term (ten years). Especially, compared to about the ticket, the people of Nigeria, they demonstrate a discount rate of short-term (around 200%) above the median (100%) have a rate of discount long term also higher than the median rate of 19%, about 42% per year. France is apparently not present in the study, but if we take Switzerland and Germany as a proxy, discount rates, whether short or long term, are rather significantly lower than the average, lower than those measured for example in Nigeria. By cons, not enough interesting it does not seem that there is a simple correlation between the level of GDP per capita and the discount rate, which seems intuitive (a higher level of per capita income is linked to lower levels of impatience) but does not appear at all clearly from the graph. You can find all of Thailand and Norway in the lowest rates, and Eastern Europe in the group of highest rates. It therefore appears that there is indeed an influence of the culture of a country on the psychological discount rate. But other factors mentioned by these authors are important, such as level of education increases the level of patience of the people.

Therefore, if the image Mozabite the patient is poetically beautiful, it seems for the moment .... not scientifically based But it is true that I still do not see a means to an experimental study on the psychological discount rate for horizons larger than one generation, so there is still room to innovate in this area.

Therefore, as regards the values of civilization and its conception of Mozabite time, it is possible to think, to quote Peter Parker aka Spider-Man in an old issue of Strange 70s, "is all even allowed to dream, right? ".



*: The Zab is a region of Algeria, located approximately 600 km south of Algiers (see map below).

An Experiment On Tooth Decay

Crédit Relay

Buy and sell new housing alongside the precedent is not always easy. Focus on a special occasion ally, the bridge loan, to be used wisely.

His playground between purchase and sale

Rushing into a new acquisition is also often assign their housing. Logically, the ideal schedule is that we sell before buying. But this principle puts the candidates to buy the risk of a slip case. Hence the role of bridging loan: a loan granted by banks in anticipation of an inflow money - in this case the sale - refundable once upon completion.


Its location, solo or duo

Sometimes the purchase price of the new property is equal to or less than the selling price of the old property. In this case, the bridge loan is "dry." Shunned by some banks, this formula is not necessarily advantageous solo, if one adds to the high interest charges and important issue of discharge of mortgage.
The other scenario is to combine the bridge loan to a mortgage complementary. The overall budget provides funding for well over the long term while supporting the notary fees, the sale is then repayment of bridging loan without penalty. A formula "duet" more interesting: the rates are lower and the fees reduced. The amount



Based on an estimate of the property, necessarily performed by a real estate professional (trader, notary ...), the amount of bridge loan varies between 60% and 100% of its value, possibly minus the remaining balance on a previous loan and evaluated according to the method of repayment (Author's note: see below) and duration.
The principle is simple: the more time selling, the longer the bridge loan is expensive. Today, schools offer rates of around 6% for version "credit dry", and about 4.5% in the best case for a loan used in a formula "duet."


His reimbursement

Whether fixed or variable, lasting three months or two years, any bridge loan must be repaid. Either the borrower rule insurance and interest to the date of sale, every month or quarter, depending on the frequency chosen. Either he will pay only the insurance premium and complete by the interest and principal "in fine", that is to say at the time of sale.
Whatever option is chosen, the ideal is always to repay the bridge loan as soon as possible.

Note

Since May 6, 2007, buyers taking out a bridging loan benefit, like other loans, tax credit on interest loan granted by the State under the law for Employment, Labour and purchasing power. For the record, this credit Tax is 40% of interest paid the first installment (more info on www.impots.gouv.fr).

Portbale Hair Salon Sinks

Choice dynamic time inconsistency and "indecent proposal"

Glad to meet you, reader, after a few weeks more erratic for this blog, explained largely by my involvement in a competition of higher education. In advance, thank you, everything went pretty well done for me and some bloggers have been very nice as you could see in some recent comments, quite incomprehensible as we do not have this Information ...

Most important for this blog is that now, I can pick up the thread of my tickets in resuming my self-imposed discipline to contribute regularly ...

DTT just repost a few days ago one of the artistic heights of Adrian Lyne, Indecent Proposal.

History, ultraconnue, is as follows: Madam, a member of a couple in love but ruined, has a proposal for a billionaire, played by the great Bob Redford, to spend a night with him through $ 1 million. The million is more than enough to save the couple's financial distress, although we California. After various dithering worthy "of love, glory and beauty", this, with the consent of her husband, finally accepted the proposal.

course, what would happen happens. Beauty is completely tourneboulée by tonight, and failed, contrary to the initial planning of its decisions, to forget the moments she spent with Bob. Some eruptions lacrimal and throwing broken crockery later, she left the poor will live with Woody and Bob, who, damned villain, he made a frantic court it must be recognized. But the ultimate end of film, the cuckolded husband finally understands how impossible situation he put his wife, he must forgive him, and his redemption complete (it even refuses a million dollars is to tell you what level of redemption it is! ), will see his ex one last time; latter, overwhelmed by so much remorse eventually graze (very decent anyway) the great Bob and leave for new adventures with his Woody became another man.

If I tell you, reader, that's the director whose masterpiece is 9 and a half weeks in the 80's, is to tell you that we are in the upper stratosphere the 7th art. However, although close to absolute zero in terms of cinematic, the film cleverly poses the choice situations that may interest damned economists and psychologists.

[ Why so much hate, ask yourself as you drive past in Fluide Glacial Edika? Well, I have a big credibility problem on this movie! Yes, I am addressing you in particular reader: if you have to choose between Woody Harrelson, poor, and Robert Redford, certainly Aging but rich, that you ultimately choose? The answer is obvious, and despite this, forcing Hollywood happy ending, the girl ended up deciding to stay Woody . It's not moquage of this world? ]

This film shows at least a very interesting question from the perspective of individual rationality. The first and most obvious is that the ability of agents to carry out plans that define today a series of shares present and future. Economists speak of dynamic choices. A dynamic choice is simply a situation where an individual chooses between several actions, then "nature" chooses "and finally (in the simplest configuration), the individual has to choose again at the end of this sequence . The problem is how agents behave in this situation. This question was asked at the time by Robert Strotz in 1956 which brought to light the potential problems of time inconsistency agents behaving "myopic" (that is to say, especially taking into account the consequences present without properly or fully anticipate the future consequences of present decisions) or "naive" (ie does not anticipate that he will have to choose again in the future and that their preferences may change). Kydland & Prescott have also inspired the idea to formalize Strotz potential problems of a government that would choose economic policies on a discretionary rather than fix them once and for all manner of regulations ("Rules Rather Than discretion," their article of 1977).

A small example to understand this, borrowed from Homer by Jon Elster philsosophe: Suppose that Odysseus came near the island of the sirens, decided to listen to their dangerous song. It is certain death for him and his companions, as mesmerized by their song, the captain and his sailors are leading the ship on the reefs surrounding the island. If Ulysses is totally "myopic" within the meaning of rationality, he does not anticipate correctly that in deciding today to pass near the island, it causes death in more or less imminent. If he has a sophisticated rationality, it should anticipate this and help himself to place himself in this predicament. To help do something that will be costly, it "ties the hands" by asking his sailors chained to the mast of the ship, they fill their ears with wax where they do not succumb to the Call of these vicious creatures.

To return to our beautiful tempted by the "siren" Robert Redford, it should anticipate that it will be impossible to forget after their night, that spell the end of their marriage and that the million dollars would be pointless. It should therefore reject the proposal because it will be costly in the end. This is exactly like the note John Hey in one of his papers (here) as in the book of Stevenson, Jekyll & Hyde, Jekyll ultimately adopting behavior "sophisticated" of killing (physiquementt speaking, since suicide ) his present self to keep his "ego" future evil appears again. But the whole point of the film lies in the behavior of "naive" or "myopia" for not anticipating it adopts The ultimate consequences of his choice including the possibility that her future preferences be modified through the night with Bob and, ultimately, they differ from these preferences.

Ditto for the husband, who accepted the indecent proposal, it should anticipate anticipate how he will live after the night in question and therefore reject the contract proposed by Bob ...

Clearly, if people behaved like standard economic theory says, there would be no film!

So the question is whether, ultimately, people are "naïve" is to say do not anticipate that they may be dynamically inconsistent, or if they "are sophisticated," ie anticipate what will be their future preferences and adopt actions which today thwart potentially bad actions future of their ego (yes, I know reader, you can buy stocks of aspirin per tonne here). In short, if I am sophisticated, this my ego knows what future actions my ego is likely to adopt and the consequences attached to them, for me and for him. A sophisticated person knows that he plays first and the non-cooperative game theory can be applied to this interaction situation between my successive egos.

A recent experimental study has been published by John ^ 3 * Bone, Hey and Suckling in 2009 in Experimental Economics (*: all three are called John, where John the cube, a version of paper should appear here ). Their experiment involves different treatments in which participants make dynamic choices.

particular, in a treatment, subjects must choose between two decisions knowing that after this first series of decisions, Nature chooses one of two ways, and they will then choose one of two new decisions, and that after that decision, a state of nature will be chosen from among two possible (they present a "decision tree" that contains 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 16 branches). Of course, before selecting the 2nd time he will know what is the state of nature selected just before. The information is increasing over time. It looks something like this:

Source: Bone, Hey and Suckling, 2009

A key finding is that more than half the participants behave so "Naive" and not "sophisticated" as I explained above. The majority of subjects do not really planning decisions and does not conform to the way economists represent the dynamic choice. Moreover, the repetition of the experience does not improve this ratio, the participants are not sophisticated at the end of a learning problem that without apprentissage.La way of economists to represent the dynamic choice sophisticated in terms of behavior is thus largely beside the point, explain the authors.

So, despite artistic quality to say the least, the film Indecent Proposal seems a certain correctness in the way of representing the choices as they are actually made by people like you and me.

This leads me to thinking: can be in fact the writer of 'Indecent Proposal' was an experimentalist who could not publish his paper, and to survive, her story has refourgué Hollywood to make public its findings? Um, um, I'll try one of my papers refourguer TF1 for "Josephine Ange Gardien" but I do not say you, reader, which one. For you to guess and watch all the episodes at once to come.